Who will win the 2025 Australian federal election?

May the one who can fend off the most minor parties and independents win. (Image: News Limited/Jason Edwards)

Australia has largely avoided minority governments throughout its history, especially in the two-party era, but that has looked for some time like it would change at the 2025 election. Neither the sitting Labor government nor the Coalition in opposition have seemed to figure out the formula to winning over voters in large numbers after the independent and minor party earthquake in 2022, which has been part of a longer trend of voters shifting away from the major parties.

Election campaigns have historically been where elections are lost rather than won, but has there ever been a campaign where both major parties end up as the losers?

Presidents in style, not substance

One of the most noticeable aspects of this campaign has been the continued growth in attention given to the leaders of the major parties, at the expense of other members of their frontbench.

With Peter Dutton, this makes some practical sense, though not because of Dutton's personal qualities. Dutton is a naturally hard-nosed kind of character, as one might expect from a former policeman. He's cautious, a bit of a stickler for the rules and not especially charismatic. He was an effective operator as a minister, but often given the portfolios that were viewed as needing a firmer hand.

He is therefore not the kind of person you'd expect to be running a presidential-style campaign, but that's only until you look at the rest of the Coalition's frontbench. The 2022 election cleared out some prominent ministers from the Liberal Party, most notably the heir-presumptive Josh Frydenberg, and so Dutton is one of the few veteran frontbenchers left.

Strategically, placing the attention on him allows some of the more inexperienced members to focus on their own seats or getting used to the being on the front bench during an election campaign. It also protects potential future leaders from any fallout should the election go pear-shaped, as it places responsibility almost solely on Dutton.

However, to be successful, their campaign needed to be as disciplined as they had been throughout the rest of his time as Leader of the Opposition - and they haven't been. If anything, they've seemed quite scattershot and unprepared. They've also lack a big ticket item to sell their vision for the country. It's not even clear that the Coalition has a vision for the country that they can clearly articulate.

Consequently, it's not been too surprising that much of the polling in the lead-up to the election showed there were large swathes of voters who seemed quite reluctant in their support of Labor, that have not been convinced of the worth of the Coalition instead.

If anything, it's been the opposite, and that may be down to the Prime Minister, who has also run a presidential-style campaign. Anthony Albanese is almost the completely opposite of Peter Dutton - fairly amiable and wears his heart on his sleeve, but also not much of a pragmatist. His big idea leading into the first term of his government was the Indigenous Voice, which was such a failure that he has seemingly given up on putting forward any more big ideas altogether.

If you ask voters what the major policies of the two parties are, I suspect most could at least point to nuclear power and cutting the fuel excise as being the Coalition's big ticket items. I'm not so sure they'd be able to name anything from Labor. It's quite odd to see the sitting government running a 'small target' campaign against an opposition that hasn't exactly gone out of its way to put forward a vast array of policies.

This has meant that Labor has mostly been able to avoid making any big errors, and certainly no U-turns like the Coalition had to make regarding public servants and working from home. It's also meant that prominent ministers who may have room to be critiqued, like Chris Bowen as Minister for Energy, have been able to keep a low profile. But it also underlies the reality that this is not a popular government. They just managed to squeak through a majority in 2022, and are a good chance at needing to form a minority government this time around.

Fear and loathing

The two major parties are stuck in a vicious cycle: their collective vote share is decreasing at every election, which causes them to be more cautious, which causes more frustration, which causes their vote share to decrease. In essence, they fear losing, yet because of that, much of the voting population loathes them. This is not really any different to what's happening in almost every two-party system in the western world, where we are seeing a pattern of historic major parties being unable to form clear majority governments on a strong mandate.

We've seen it in Canada, where the Liberals will again be forming a minority government. We've seen it Britain, where despite winning a comfortable majority of seats, Labour did so on the back of a record-low vote share and have been punished severely at this week's local election. We've seen it in Germany, where the Union parties are crawling towards forming government with their historical rivals in the Social Democrats (again).

But what stands out with Australia's system is the dual use of single-member electorate with preferential voting, and compulsory voting. This has generally been regarded as a boon for the major parties, as it means that people tend to end up picking one or the other in the end, and the major parties don't have to get too 'radical' in order to win over disengaged voters (often, this is said to be in contrast to the United States).

But the tide may be turning. Frustration with the major parties is occurring at all levels of society, and preferential voting now gives non-major parties candidates a viable path to winning a seat. The system is designed to find the least objectionable candidate for the majority of people, rather than simply awarding the seat to the person who receives a plurality of votes even if 70% of the electorate wanted someone else. Therefore, a candidate with only 15-20% of first preferences may end up leap-frogging others in the Australian system to end up winning their seat.

While this had happened occasionally in the 2000s, and more often in the 2010s, 2022 felt like a dam hitting its breaking point. The Climate 200-sponsored independents won a swathe of seats, the Greens made breakthroughs in Queensland, and a couple of other independents won as well. Even though there isn't necessarily one issue getting people agitated this time around, there are many seats where minor parties or independents feel they have a real shot and have been emboldened by major party stagnation. One of the big questions this time around is whether the major party vote will continue to decline - in 2022 it was 68.3% of total votes cast in the lower house. Current polling is estimating anywhere between 61% and 70%.

The Greens are continuing to make waves in inner-city electorates, though it will be worth watching in the long-term whether their main rivals end up being neither of the major parties, but instead the Teal independents. The Liberals are finding more fertile ground in the outer suburbs, and if they can't wrest back their traditional wealthy electorates from the Teals, they may instead seek to win over some of Labor's traditional strongholds instead (emulating a pattern also seen elsewhere in the western world). However, the Coalition may end up finding themselves also fighting three-way battles in these seats, with One Nation looking to set itself up as the Greens equivalent in these places.

Minority rules

Therefore, this looks like an election where local issues will matter far more than they have at previous federal elections. Normally, the size of federal electorates tends to 'smooth over' local issues, as they tend to instead reflect the national (or at least regional) mood. But without a tangible issue in focus at this election, the abstract 'national mood' is likely to play out concretely in a variety of ways.

This is wreaking havoc on polling. The 'mood for change' question is normally one that indicates whether a government is going to win or lose, but we're in an unusual situation where a majority are saying they want change, but also that the opposition is not ready for government. People don't like the government, but they also don't feel strongly enough in favour of their opponents to choose them instead.

As such, polling firms are having to guess where preferences are going to go due to the higher number of minor party and independent polling options being supported. It's also not entirely clear that two-party-preferred polling is useful, given the large number of seats that may not end up being Labor vs Coalition contests. The election will not be decided by 2PP, but by the preference flows in 150 different local contests.

If one was to try and describe the national mood, it's perhaps one of unaimed frustration. There are obvious issues, but no clear proposed solutions. The cautiousness of both major parties means they can't be accused of proposing the wrong solution, but that's only because they don't have one at all. Australian politicians still seem fearful of imitating John Hewson, who lost the 'unlosable' election in 1993 because of his bold GST proposal. No-one wants to be the one proposing a big, concrete policy that gets rejected.

With so many local variables, some polling companies have tried individual seat polling. But the margin of error on these is so large - due to it being tough to get a proper sample - that they must be taken with several pinches of salt. Other firms are also trying what are called 'MRP' polls, which attempt to extrapolate what will happen in individual seats based on trends seen across demographic groups in national polling. But these cannot account for independents or prominent minor party candidates basically at all, which makes them not quite useless, but certainly less useful than they are in Britain.

The upshot of all is that election prediction remains as much an art as it a science. There's all kinds of data out there, but it's only useful if you can figure out what each data point is saying and what it isn't saying. You have to listen to anecdotes, weigh up biases, see what local trends may assist or conflict with regional or national trends, if there are any to spot.

The one national trend that I will point out, as it will be important to understand the likely swings in voting, is that the areas in which cost of living is hurting more are the areas where Labor is most likely to be hurt in return, whereas wealthier electorates will have a more muted swing, if any at all. Some will swing towards Labor instead. We saw a preview of this in the Western Australian state election - in the inner and wealthier middle suburbs, the swing away from Labor's record high at the previous election was fairly small, but the outer suburbs and the regions recorded massive swings. It seems likely that something similar will happen here.

Run of the Board

House of Representatives

Presently, the redistributed House of Representatives contains 150 seats, of which 78 are Labor, 54 belong to the Coalition, and 18 are crossbenchers. This is all notional as the last election was for 151 representatives. Two seats, North Sydney in New South Wales and Higgins in Victoria, have been abolished, and the division of Bullwinkel has been created in Western Australia. In addition, many seats have had significant boundary changes.

As such, there is one less crossbencher in the 'notional' HoR currently than there is in reality, that being Kylea Tink in North Sydney (while Higgins and Bullwinkel cancel each other out as Labor seats). To form a majority government in the new HoR, a party needs to win 76 seats. We'll focus on seats that are more likely to be a contest here.

New South Wales

The loss of four traditionally Liberal coastal electorates in Sydney to like-minded Teal independents was symbolic of the Morrison government's fall from grace in 2022, and has left the Coalition scrambling to figure out where they should be targeting to try and get back in to government. One of those seats, North Sydney, has been abolished, but the problem has not gone away. Much of Labor's frontbench is found in Sydney's central strip of electorates, which are all fairly safe. But if the Coalition dreams of government, they have to win more seats in Sydney.

One place they will look is Bennelong (ALP -0.1%) on the western north shore, held by Labor's Jerome Laxale on a notional negative margin. This was, famously, the seat John Howard lost as Prime Minister in 2007. A third of this seat was previously in North Sydney, with the stronger Labor areas redistributed away. The Liberal candidate here, Scott Yung, hasn't had a great campaign and may have been better off running in Bennelong's old boundaries rather than their current ones. Laxale will also benefit from this being his first re-election campaign. Nevertheless, this is a hard seat to gauge, and is likely to simply go along with the general mood in the region.

If things are looking good for Labor here, they may benefit in neighbouring Bradfield (Lib 2.5%). The sitting member, Paul Fletcher, is retiring, and the Teal independent who ran him close last time, Nicolette Boele, is running again. Making life more difficult for the Liberals is that another independent, Andy Yin, is running as a spoiler for them after failing to be preselected. Furthermore, North Sydney was partially redistributed into the seat, which means some voters here are used to having an independent MP already. The factors that may be working in the Coalition's favour in outer suburbs will likely work against them here, though none of this is to say they are guaranteed to lose. But if a new Teal is to be elected anyway in the country, it will likely be here. Similarly in neighbouring Mackellar (Ind 3.3% vs Lib), Sophie Scamps is likely to retain her seat on a similar margin to last time.

Neighbouring all three of these to the north-west is Berowra (Lib 7.5%), currently targeted by another Teal, journalist Tina Brown. This is a mixed electorate, taking in the northern extremities of Sydney's metro area, represented by Julian Leeser, one of the few Coalition MPs to support the Yes campaign for the Voice. Given how the axe fell on many of his small-l liberal colleagues in 2022, Leeser may be a bit nervous about his chances here, but will probably benefit from the seat's varied composition. It isn't entirely clear that Brown will make the final two, as there are parts of the electorate that are quite favourable to Labor, and much of the north-eastern part is quite conservative. But the Greens have also done well here, and if Brown get to the final two she may be able to knock Leeser off through a mix of preferences.

Beyond Sydney itself towards the Central Coast, Robertson (ALP 2.2%) borders Berowra and Mackellar and is the kind of seat the Coalition will have had their eyes on, in no small part because it is a reliable bellwether electorate.. Increasingly popular with those fleeing metropolitan Sydney, the promised fuel excise cut will have been attractive to many here, but with many also doing work-from-home with Sydney-based jobs, that may even out the Coalition's appeal. Labor's Gordon Reid is also a reasonably popular member here. To its west, spanning the Blue Mountains, is Macquarie (ALP 6.3%), which is probably on an inflated margin due to local issues last time that are no longer so relevant. If there's a serious swing on in these semi-rural seats, they will both be in play, but as it stands the Liberals will probably fall short in both.

The factors that may be in play in Macquarie may also be present in a group of western Sydney seats, the most prominent of which is Werriwa (ALP 5.3%). Labor's primary vote was already quite low here in 2022, when the sitting MP, Anne Stanley, was running for her first re-election and there was a general swing against the Coalition. As a core part of the modern mortgage belt in outer western Sydney, that may be a sign that the Liberals are poised to turn this seat blue at some point in the future. Whether they can do it in 2025 is a separate question. There were a lot of factors in Stanley's favour last time that don't exist now, and if she is saved it will only be because the Coalition's general performance has not been strong enough.

Next door in Fowler (Ind 1.4% vs ALP), it's Labor trying furiously to win a seat that was theirs for many years. Former Liberal turned independent Dai Le won this seat against former NSW Premier Kristina Keneally in 2022, and the Liberals are basically not running at all in this seat to ensure she continues to hold out against them. She chose to run last time after Labor parachuted Keneally into the seat ahead of local Tu Le, whom they have belatedly chosen this time around, and Dai gained the preferences of the Liberals (who had also selected a Vietnamese-Australian) to get over the line. With three years to solidify her place in the electorate and no particular feeling of good will towards Labor going on, Dai Le is probably favourite to hold on.

To the north-east, another former Liberal, Matthew Camenzuli, is trying to do the same in Chris Bowen's electorate of McMahon (ALP 10.5%). Bowen has a rather large margin, but will probably be punished by his outer suburban electorate as the face of Labor's position on national energy matters. However, it's not entirely clear that Camenzuli will finish in the top two, and with only five candidates running, there's unlikely to be a sufficient spray of preferences for Bowen to have a serious chance of losing his seat at this election.

A more marginal electorate in the west is Parramatta (ALP3.7%). which Andrew Charlton won against now-Senator Maria Kovacic in 2022. Parramatta is more affluent than it used to be, and with Charlton in his first term it seems likely that this seat will represent the boundary between the more Labor-friendly seats closer to the Sydney CBD, and those judging the government more harshly further away. Along those lines, Blaxland (ALP 13.0%) and Watson (ALP 15.2%) will be a separate challenge to the government, not because they are likely to lose either, but because both electorates have among the highest proportion of Muslim voters in the country, and may even be the top two. Because of the government's prevaricating over Gaza, both seats have independents running to try and punish them in the primary votes, although the Liberals are preferencing Labor ahead of those independents, so this will more be a measure of how much the Gaza issue is likely to effect other electorates, particularly Wills in Victoria.

To the south of these is the seat of Banks (Lib 2.6%), and further south again is Hughes (Lib 3.5%). While the Liberals would be favourites to hold on to both, any swing towards Labor would mean these are very much in play, especially Banks, though that seat has continually trended towards the Liberals over the last few decades.

Leaving Sydney, the southern coastal seat of Gilmore (ALP 0.2%) is one the Coalition would rather like to win back, and former state government minister Andrew Constance is having another run at unseating Labor's Fiona Phillips. This was seen as a comfortable gain for the Liberals a few months ago, but the campaign period has seen it come back to be considered a 50/50 contest. Both sides have talked up their chances, and it may come down to whether the Teal candidate here grabs more votes from the Liberals that don't return to them than she does for Labor, as she has no chance of coming in the top two. If the ALP can keep this, they will be pleased and potentially on track to form a majority government.

Heading north-west to Bathurst, Orange and Lithgow, the division of Calare (Ind 9.7% vs Ind) is poised to be a confusing three-way contest between the Nationals, the sitting member, Andrew Gee, who was elected as a National but quit the party to support the Yes campaign for the Voice, and Kate Hook, a Teal independent who finished second against Gee last time. There are ten candidates on the ballot paper, which is sure to add to the complexity of the count. Gee is probably the favourite to win, as long as he can make it to the final two. It's hard to gauge the personal popularity of MPs who quit their party to run as independents, but regional MPs who do so tend to have more success than their metropolitan counterparts.

Another likely three-cornered contest is likely to the north-east in Hunter (ALP 4.80%). Once a coal mining Labor stronghold, the shift in energy policy caused Labor a real scare in 2019 here, and 2022 was only a mild recovery in what should have been a better election for them. While sitting member Dan Repacholi is running for his first re-election, he will be up against One Nation's candidate from 2019, Stuart Bonds, who also ran as an independent in 2022. Bonds came ever so close to making the final two in 2019, and is a prominent figure in the area. Many of the other minor conservative party voters are likely to favour him with their preferences, and if he can get ahead of the Nationals, he may run Repacholi very close. The Nationals may do likewise if he doesn't, but preferences probably won't flow as strongly to them in the final two. With energy such an important question, this in some ways is a referendum on the preferred source of energy in the valley - renewables (Labor), nuclear (Coalition), or coal (One Nation).

The energy question also matters just to the east along the peninsula seat of Paterson (ALP 2.6%). Ten candidates are running here, including a conservative local mayor who is preferencing the Liberals. This has never been guaranteed Labor territory in the first place, and it seems entirely likely that the Liberals could win this from preference flows in much the same way as they may fall short in a seat like Gilmore, or in a seat like Cowper (Nat 2.6% vs Ind), situated between Coffs Harbour and Port Macquarie. More urbanised than other Nationals seats, this was nearly won by former independent MP Rob Oakeshott when he ran in 2019, and Teal candidate Caz Heise is running an enormous campaign to try and get over the line on her second try. The eleven candidate field may be a help or hinderance to both, but more likely to hurt sitting MP Pat Conaghan by spraying preferences everywhere.

On the other side of a similar equation, Labor may be in some trouble in Richmond (ALP 8.2%), the northern-most electorate in NSW. While their margin looks comfortable on the surface, it is a margin against the Nationals, but it is the Greens who are most well-placed to pick up this seat centred on Byron Bay. Labor's primary vote is not very high here, and there's little reason to think it will improve now when it has been falling consistently for a long time. If they come third, which wouldn't take much of a swing, their preferences will elect the Greens candidate, a quite probable scenario.

Prediction

Labor - 24 (-1): Barton, Bennelong, Blaxland, Chifley, Cunningham, Dobell, Eden-Monaro, Gilmore, Grayndler, Greenway, Hunter, Kingsford-Smith, Macarthur, Macquarie, McMahon, Newcastle, Parramatta, Reid, Robertson, Shortland, Sydney, Watson, Werriwa, Whitlam

Liberal/Nationals - 14 (-2): Banks, Berowra, Cook, Farrer, Hughes, Hume, Lindsay, Lyne, Mitchell, New England, Page, Parkes, Paterson, Riverina

Other - 8 (+3): Bradfield, Calare, Cowper, Fowler, Mackellar, Richmond, Warringah, Wentworth

Victoria

The Coalition's struggles in Victoria were meant to be at an end this election, with a host of middle and outer suburban seats seemingly up for grabs. Their struggles in recent polls have meant that a gap has emerged between seats they might win, seats where they could've but now aren't even thinking about, and seats where they will do better than anticipated but only in order to set up potentially winning them in 2028.

Firstly, the seat most expected to fall at this election is Aston (ALP 2.8%) in the outer east. This was won by the ALP at a by-election, and such seats can often swing back to their previous 'owner' at the next election. A swing in this outer eastern suburban electorate will also likely come as a relief to the Liberals, as its two northern neighbours of Deakin (Lib 0.0%) and Casey (Lib 1.4%) are seats they cannot afford to lose, especially the former given it hosts shadow minister Michael Sukkar. Having said that, Deakin is unlikely to be a comfortable win for Sukkar, and similar can be said for Keith Wolahan in Menzies (Lib -0.4%), which is notionally a Labor seat currently. With the general mood in Victoria not so favourable to Labor as last time, the Liberals should still be able to hold onto them. But they have not made life easy for themselves, and poor local candidate selection has probably cost them any chance in Bruce (ALP 5.3%) to the south-east.

There are, of course, two other seats that the Liberals have their eyes on in the east: Kooyong (Ind 3.5% vs Lib) and Goldstein (Ind 3.9% vs Lib). These were two of the more famous Teal victories in 2022, in no small part because they saw the back of two leading Morrison government ministers, Josh Frydenberg and Tim Wilson respectively. Despite their similarities, the campaigns this time around are quite different. In Goldstein, on the south-east coast, things have been relatively calm. Wilson is attempting to make a comeback, but MP Zoe Daniel has largely kept herself out of trouble and will likely see a swing towards her. Kooyong, on the other hand, has been a car crash, and possibly the most vicious campaign in the country, which has left neither sitting MP Monique Ryan nor Liberal candidate Amanda Hamer looking good. With the abolition of Higgins, Kooyong has taken on more of the leafiest suburbs in Melbourne, but that probably won't affect things too much either way. The lack of candidates on the ballot may be in Hamer's favour, but has made enough stumbles of her own that her and Ryan largely balance each other out.

Perched in between these is the division of Macnamara (ALP 12.2%), previously Melbourne Ports (which gives you some idea of its location). This three-cornered contest is the only one in the country where Labor is running an open ticket on their how-to-vote cards, owing to the Gaza issue being a major issue here. It is, after all, home to Australia's most concentrated Jewish community, but is also an urban seat increasingly amenable to the Greens. Labor have successfully negotiated the challenge of navigating between the two since the Greens began being a force in nearby Melbourne, but circumstances may mean that there is no more space for them to thread the needle, which would see them drop to third on first preferences and give the seat to the Greens.

The issues affecting Macnamara will also be at play to the north of the city, particularly in Wills (ALP 4.6% vs Grn). Just as around 10% of Macnamara's population is Jewish, so too around 10% of Wills is Muslim. There is essentially a north-south split here, with the southern city end favourable to the Greens, and the northern end more Labor. Peter Khalil, the Labor MP, is not necessarily a great fit for the seat in terms of his own politics, and the Greens are running the high-profile Samantha Ratnam to try and unseat him, and if they can convince voters in the north of the seat over the Gaza issue, they will probably succeed. Neighbouring seats with similar demographics are Cooper (ALP 7.8% vs Grn), which is probably safe as long as MP Ged Kearney is running, and Calwell (ALP 12.4%) which has a retiring member and 13 candidates running, including multiple prominent independents. Labor will likely take a whack here, but the byzantine preference flows will work out alright for them.

Calwell may end up being a sign of times as we turn further west. McEwen (ALP 3.8%), which covers the northern fringe of Melbourne from east to west, is another likely Liberal gain. Long-time MP Rob Mitchell is running again, but the primary vote for him here was already in the mid 30s in 2022, and will almost certainly fall further, as this is a mortgage belt seat where the Coalition is likely to do best. To the south-west is Hawke (ALP 7.6%), which includes many of the rapidly expanding outer western suburbs. With a first-term MP and a solid margin, this seems an unlikely pick for a Liberal victory, but if the Coalition's strategy is likely to pay dividends anywhere it should be in a seat like Hawke. The lack of candidates running will probably also help.

It will be a similar story in the division of Gorton (ALP 10.0%), which is slightly closer to the city, on a larger margin but with a retiring MP. Had the Coalition been running stronger across the country, Hawke and Gorton would have been top targets. So too the electorate of Corangamite (ALP 7.6%), on the Bellarine Peninsula. A mixed electorate of mortgage belt, semi-rural and seachangers, this will likely swing to the Liberals without being enough to move it over. It's not all rosy for the Coalition in western Victoria though, with a tough battle for shadow minister Dan Tehan in Wannon (Lib 3.5% vs Ind). He is running up against returning Teal candidate Alex Dyson, who did very well on preferences last time without an especially solid showing on first preferences. With Labor and the Greens largely running dead in this seat to allow Dyson space to gain a profile, he should be able to solidify his first preferences, but whether that translates into any real swing in his favour is harder to tell.

Another seat with an independent hoping to win is the west Gippsland division of Monash (Ind 2.9% vs ALP), which may be most confusing electorate in the country. Sitting MP Russell Broadbent quit the Liberals after being deselected in favour of Mary Aldred. Labor received 25% of the vote last time, and is running an actual campaign despite being the rank outsider, while the Teal independent candidate from last time is also running again. The Greens, who earnt 10% of the vote in 2022, are running an open ticket (their only one in the country). Because this is potentially a four-way contest, it's not as easy to calculate the likely logic as in Calare, which is an equivalent regional battle. Any candidate who can score over 20% of first preferences will probably be the favourite. On balance of probabilities, the Liberals are probably the most likely to win, but it may take a long time to count.

Prediction

Labor - 20 (-5): Ballarat, Bendigo, Bruce, Calwell, Chisholm, Cooper, Corangamite, Corio, Dunkley, Fraser, Gellibrand, Gorton, Hawke, Holt, Hotham, Isaacs, Jagajaga, Lalor, Maribyrnong, Scullin

Liberal/Nationals - 12 (+4): Aston, Casey, Deakin, Flinders, Gippsland, La Trobe, Mallee, McEwen, Menzies, Monash, Nicholls, Wannon

Other - 6 (+1): Goldstein, Kooyong, Indi, Macnamara, Melbourne, Wills

Queensland

The Sunshine State has been a challenge for Labor for decades, and a soothing balm in otherwise tough elections for the Coalition. It stands out as the main reason why Labor only just reached a majority in 2022 rather than getting there comfortably, and the ALP is targeting only a handful of seats to try and pick off not only the LNP, but also the Greens, who were the beneficiaries of three inner-city three-cornerned contests in 2022.

That's where we'll start, with the electorates of Brisbane (Grn 3.7% vs LNP), in the city central, Griffith (Grn 10.5 vs LNP), to the south of the river, and Ryan (Grn 2.6% vs LNP), to the west. While the margins in all three seats are placed against the LNP, only two were wins over the LNP in 2022, while Griffith saw the sitting Labor member knocked into third place. This gives you some sense of the electorates, which are not quite the same demographically as their equivalents in inner-city Sydney or Melbourne (or, at least, are not yet). Brisbane has all three candidates from last time running again, and it wouldn't take much of a swing to see Trevor Evans return for the LNP, especially as there was no Teal candidate last time or this time despite it being the kind of electorate where that would fit, and so the Greens somewhat filled that space. Labor may lose votes in both directions, but also gain vote from both directions as a middle ground, as they're attempting in Macnamara. I suspect Steven Bates will hold it for the Greens on a reduced majority.

Ryan is a similar kind of electorate to Brisbane, but Labor is very clearly the third force here. It seems almost certain that the final two will be Greens vs LNP, in which case the election will be decided on whether there's a swing to the LNP in this area of the state. That doesn't seem much more likely here than in other urban areas, even with the Leader of the Opposition being a Queenslander. Griffith, meanwhile, is the most like Macnamara, with the LNP coming second last time but not having any chance of winning the seat. Greens MP Max Chandler-Mather is the most high profile of their three Queenslanders, and may get more support on name recognition. But if the LNP fall to third, that will almost certainly see Labor's Renee Coffey elected on Coalition preferences, so the Greens have to hope that Labor voters will switch to the Greens in larger numbers than people switch away from the LNP.

To east of Brisbane is Bonner (LNP 3.4%), which is probably Labor's best chance at taking one back from the Coalition. A rather middle-class sort of area, voters probably aren't feeling too swayed in either direction here, and so Labor has been targeting them to get them on board with the status quo (of a Labor government). The public service kerfuffle may not have helped the LNP either. Labor may be able to get this one very close without having spent enough time on it to get the swing large enough.

The other Coalition seat Labor have their eye on is up in the tropics. Leichhardt (LNP 3.4%) will have a new MP following the second retirement of long-time member Warren Entsch. Entsch first retired at the 2007 election, whereupon Labor won the seat for the first time since 1996. He came back at the 2010 election and has held it ever since, and has been winning to disagree with his party on social policies which has perhaps helped his local popularity. This is very much a seat in the balance, and much will depend on whether or not the demographics of this seat have changed since Labor's last win in 2007. Had Entsch retired early, Labor's chances probably would have been stronger, but it would not be a surprise if they pull it out.

Heading north of Brisbane are three seats the LNP hold by slim margins, those being Dickson (LNP 1.7%), Longman (LNP 3.1%) and Petrie (LNP 4.4%). Despite the margins being quite slim, there is little suggestion that Longman or Petrie are in reach for Labor, as the LNP's target demographic from this election is more present in these areas, and the ALP has tried not to overreach. That means that they are more than happy to focus on just one of these three, that being Dickson, home of Peter Dutton. Dutton has represented the electorate for 24 years, and has spent at least half of those years being allegedly at risk of losing it. It's one of those things where you only believe it if you see it, but Labor is really pushing hard, perhaps trying to goad the Coalition into moving resources from other seats or just thinking they can get a repeat of the recent Canadian election. Central Queensland's Flynn (LNP 3.8%) is another seat held by a slim margin that Labor are not targeting, in an indication of jhow disciplined they are being in aiming for a small number of seats because that's all they need.

The LNP have their eyes on a Labor seat too, that being Blair (ALP 5.2%), which covers most of Ipswich. This is the sort of area that the Coalition has been targeting in the election, and they even have the benefit of being top of the ticket. But there is a standing question over whether the margin is just a little too big for them to shift it in an election where the overall swing is likely to be minimal. It will likely be quite close, but perhaps Blair and Bonner cancel each other out.

Finally, the two Sunshine Coast electorate of Fairfax (LNP 9.0%) and Fisher (LNP 8.7%) are being targeted by Teals. Of the two, Fairfax is more interesting as it was previously won by Clive Palmer on a low primary vote, so it's not impossible to imagine the same happening again. But in all likelihood these campaign will struggle to get enough cut-through in a seat of this size, starting from zero, compared to independents elsewhere who have run and come close before.

Prediction

Labor - 5 (-): Blair, Lilley, Moreton, Oxley, Rankin

Liberal National - 21 (-): Bonner, Bowman, Capricornia, Dawson, Dickson, Fadden, Fairfax, Fisher, Flynn, Forde, Groom, Herbert, Hinkler, Leichhardt, Longman, Maranoa, McPherson, Moncrieff, Petrie, Wide Bay, Wright

Other - 4 (-): Brisbane, Griffith, Kennedy, Ryan

Western Australia

Labor is yet to leave their 'era of good feelings' in Western Australia. Since 2021, the party has done enormously well at state and federal level, and not much looks like changing this time around. This has taken some good PR work on their part, as West Australians have historically been more hostile to federal Labor than to state Labor, and so the state government has managed to navigate the course of appearing to stand up to the federal government while not outright opposing them quite well, and the federal party has largely been hands-off, aside from Albanese taking regular trips to the west.

On notional margins, there are only two Labor seats up for grabs. One is the new electorate of Bullwinkel (ALP 3.3%), which the Liberals are well placed to win. While it extends out into the Wheatbelt with towns like York, most its population is within the eastern fringes. The Nationals may be able to eke out 10-15% of votes, and this will almost entirely transfer over to the Liberals thanks to the live sheep export issue.

The Keep the Sheep campaign has set its sights on metropolitan electorates as well, including the most marginal Labor seat of Tangney (ALP 2.8%), covering the southern side of the Canning and western Swan Rivers. Held by the Liberals since 1984, it was a shock when Labor's Sam Lim pulled off a win here in 2022. Lim is quite a popular local member with a significant profile for a first-term backbencher, and given that there doesn't appear to be a large swing back to the Liberals on the cards in general, that may be enough to see him hold on.

There is one other Labor seat worth keeping an eye on, which is Fremantle (ALP 16.9%). Currently, it's held by Josh Wilson, but that is against the Liberals. Kate Hulett, an independent candidate who ran Labor close at the state election in Fremantle, has chosen to run for the federal seat and is receiving preferences from basically every other candidate, and she is likely to be taking votes from Labor, Liberals and the Greens. The problem she will have, though, is that her profile in the south of the electorate is not so great. I suspect that she may be able to get to the final two, but she will not be able to win.

Another seat where an independent's chances are being talked up is Forrest (Lib 4.2%), in the south-west, which has been held by the Liberals since 1972. Teal candidate Sue Chapman has been talked up a great deal, but it seems unlikely she'll be able to peel away any more Liberal voters than already left in 2022 to vote for Labor or the Greens. With the addition of the Nationals, this electorate feels like it will have a similar result to Bullwinkel.

In the western suburbs, there's already an independent in Parliament. Curtin (Ind 1.3%) has Kate Cheney running for her first re-election, and though her current margin is slim, with there being no especially prevailing mood towards the Liberals it seems likely she will follow many of her fellow Teals and be re-elected, though it should be said that Curtin is not entirely like the leafier suburbs in Sydney and Melbourne that elected Teals, and so a victory for her is very much in the balance.

There probably won't be any such luck for Ian Goodenough in Moore (Ind 0.9%), who holds the seat on a margin of less than 1% but was deselected in favour of former state MP Vince Connolly by the local Liberal branch. Goodenough, running as an independent, has an open ticket on his how-to-vote card, but this electorate probably reached its Labor highwater mark in 2022, with the state electorate of Carine being one of the few bright spots for the Liberals at the recent state election in this area. It seems unlikely that loyal Goodenough voters would preference Labor in large numbers over the Liberals.

Prediction Labor - 9 (-): Brand, Burt, Cowan, Fremantle, Hasluck, Pearce, Perth, Swan, Tangney Liberal - 6 (+2): Bullwinkel, Canning, Durack, Forrest, Moore, O'Connor Other - 1 (-1): Curtin

South Australia

Things are little better for the Coalition in South Australia, though unlike in WA, this has been more predominantly Labor territory for a long time. Almost every electorate here is held by a double-digit margin, with only two standing out as potential gains for either side.

The first is Sturt (Lib 0.5%), an ancient stronghold of the Liberal Party in the north-east of Adelaide that looks extremely vulnerable thanks to the party's weak status in the state. This area is gentrifying, and like with similar electorates in other states, that may spell doom for the Liberals. Meanwhile the division of Boothby (ALP 3.3%) is on the exact opposite side of the city, but with very similar numbers. This was lost by the Liberals in 2022, and it again is hard to see how they could make any headway this time around.

Prediction

Labor - 7 (+1): Adelaide, Boothby, Hindmarsh, Kingston, Makin, Spence, Sturt

Liberal - 2 (-1): Barker, Grey

Other - 1 (-): Mayo

Tasmania

While the Apple Isle has only ever had five electorates, normally at least one of them will provide a bit of excitement. This time around, there's four that could potentially throw a curveball, but in all four the status quo is most likely. Though one thing is worth noting: the Jacquie Lambie Network is not running in any lower house seats, which means their preferences that mostly favoured Labor in 2022 will now likely return to the Coalition (sometimes via One Nation).

The most marginal seat is Lyons (ALP 0.9%), which covers the Midlands and east coast. The sitting MP is retiring, but Labor have preselected former state leader Rebecca White to run, while the Liberals have run with the same candidate as in 2022. Labor probably should not have won here in 2022 after their primary vote collapsed, but JLN preferences just got them over the line. Having a prominent candidate helps cover an electorate with a large area like this one, but White will need to figure out a way to get the ALP primary vote back into the mid 30s to have any chance of winning.

The other seat most likely either side's for the taking is Bass (Lib 1.4%), a notorious swing seat in the north-east that sitting MP Bridget Archer held on to as the first re-elected member for nearly 20 years. Archer was the only Liberal to benefit from JLN preferences, so the current margin is likely reflective of current reality. While never easy to predict, there is probably not a large enough mood for change here for this seat to swing noticeably in either direction.

The two other electorates worth briefly noting are Braddon (Lib 8.0%) and Franklin (ALP 13.7%), neither of which are expected to be surprises but both of which could be. A good night for the ALP would see them knocking off the Liberals in Braddon following the retirement of their MP, likely with the help of some Teal preferences. Bear in mind that Tasmanian divisions have less voters than in other states, so it wouldn't take as many people to change their mind to create a large swing. In Franklin, meanwhile, the campaign is between the ALP and a Teal independent over the salmon farming issue, with the Teals benefiting from the Greens candidate dropping out of the race. The Liberals have officially preferenced Labor here, so it would take a mighty backlash against the government over this issue to see them lose.

Prediction

Labor - 2 (-): Franklin, Lyons

Liberal - 2 (-): Bass, Braddon

Other - 1 (-): Clark

Australian Capital and Northern Territories

Other than a brief period in the 1970s, the ACT has been entirely represented by Labor MPs for the last fifty years. That doesn't seem like to change any time soon, and this is reflect in the low candidate numbers in all three seats here this time around.

The Northern Territory is more worth watching, with the seat of Solomon (ALP 9.4%) changing hands regularly over the years. The margin is a bit of a misnomer - 20% of votes cast last time were either for the Liberal Democrats (who were top of the ticket), One Nation or United Australia. Country Liberal first preferences should be higher this time around, and preference flows will probably be at least marginally better too. I suspect Labor will hold on, but only just, and that's only if the independent running here doesn't end up having the opposite effect, taking away Labor preferences and seeing them end up with the CLP.

Solomon covers Darwin, with the rest of the NT covered by Lingiari (ALP 1.8%). While the margin here is closer, I suspect this is strangely a more difficult pick-up for the CLP. They had an effective candidate last time who is not running again, and this has always been held by Labor. One thing to note with both seats is that the CLP territory government is popular, but more so in Darwin than outside. But if enough of that popularity flows into federal results, then the ALP could lose both.

Prediction

Labor - 5 (-): Bean, Canberra, Fenner, Lingiari, Solomon

Country Liberal/Liberal - 0 (-): None

Other - 0 (-): None

Total

Labor: 72 (-6)

Coalition: 57 (+3)

Greens: 7 (+3)

Other: 14 (-)

Senate

The Australian Senate contain 76 seats, with 12 in each state, half of which are up for grabs at each election, and two in each territory, which are contested at every election. With 40 seats to be decided at this election, whoever is elected will be joining the 36 elected in 2022, which include 14 from the Coalition, 12 from Labor, 5 from the Greens, and 5 from the crossbench.

New South Wales

The First State is usually fairly representative of the country as a whole when it comes to electing senators, probably owing to it having the largest population of all the states. More voters means more chance to smooth out variables in regional voting patterns, and makes it harder for insurgents to get to get the groundswell of support needed to reach a quota. This election is unlikely to be any different. There are three Coalition seats up for re-election, along with two from the ALP and one from the Greens.

Prediction

Liberal/National: 3 (-)

Labor: 2 (-)

Greens: 1 (-)

Other: 0 (-)

Victoria

While one would expect Victoria to be along similar lines as their northern counterparts in Senate elections, and for similar reasons (ie. the size of their population), the Coalition's struggles in this state over the last 20 years have seen them lose the final seat in the election to a minor party on three occasions. The first was in 2010 to the revived Democratic Labour Party. Three years later, it was to the Australian Motoring Enthusiasts Party, a result which saw Senate elections reformed to ensure that parties couldn't choose where voter preferences went. Then, in 2022, Clive Palmer's United Australia Party nabbed the last spot. Nevertheless, there is a traditional 3-2-1 up for re-election.

The Coalition's fortunes have likely reversed in Victoria after their record low at the last election, and there is no minor party likely to get enough of the vote to pose a challenge. This is not to say their place is guaranteed, but if they recover the votes they lose in 2022 (about 3%), that would put them at around 2.5 quotas. One Nation has not had much success in Victoria, and none of the other conservative-leaning minor parties has much profile there. Legalise Cannabis, on the other hand, would require Labor's leftovers to be quite large, which is unlikely given their vote share will probably drop from last election.

Prediction

Liberal/National: 3 (-)

Labor: 2 (-)

Greens: 1 (-)

Other: 0 (-)

Queensland

The Coalition have largely been unable to make the most of their success in Queensland in 2019, when they managed to secure 3 seats here in addition to Malcolm Roberts being elected for One Nation, leaving Labor and the Greens with 1 each. This is quite different from their similar success up north in 2004, when they got 4 seats in the Sunshine State and, through that, controlled the Senate. This also makes things rather tricky for them this time around, as they are unlikely to do well enough to prevent Labor and the Greens from taking half of the seats on offer this time around.

Queensland is, famously, the home of One Nation, and Roberts is favourite to be elected to the sixth seat. There is, however, a potential banana peel in the form of Gerard Rennick, former LNP Senator turned independent after being deselected. Rennick has formed a solid following over the last few years, and has rapidly mobilised an army of volunteers that seems, at least in Queensland, to outstrip One Nation's by some distance. With such a short run-in, it seems unlike to me that his People First party will secure more than a couple of percent of the vote, though he will probably be able to make a run for the last seat based on preference flows. If Labor were in a weaker position, it may have even been possible for him and Roberts to both secure seats, but that doesn't seem likely with how things are tracking.

Prediction

Liberal National: 2 (-)

Labor: 2 (+1)

Greens: 1 (-)

Other: 1 (-1)

Western Australia

Traditionally, WA has been almost as tough for Labor as Queensland, but in 2022 they flipped the script and prevented the Liberals from getting their third seat, which is hugely beneficial to the current government. It has turned out not to be quite as beneficial as expected with the defection of Fatima Payman, but it still means that the Coalition is playing catch up. Labor will be hoping that they could even repeat it again this time around following the state government's third successive landslide recently.

However, what seems more likely is that there will be a semi-correction - enough to block Labor from winning a third seat, but still making it tough for the Liberals to get there. That will potentially open the door for One Nation, which had two members elected at the recent state election and would be best placed to gather preferences from other minor parties. Their biggest rival outside of the major parties would be Legalise Cannabis, with One Nation receiving preferences from the Liberals and Nationals, and Legalise Cannabis from Labor and the Greens.

Prediction

Liberal: 2 (-1)

Labor: 2 (-)

Greens: 1 (-)

Other: 1 (+1)

South Australia

You'll have noticed that as the population has decreased, the chances of a state electing something other than 3-2-1 increases. For a time, this was especially seen in South Australia, which in 2013 elected 2 Liberals, 1 Labor, 1 Green, 1 Independent and 1 Family First. That independent was Nick Xenophon, who managed to get himself and two others elected alongside him at the 2016 double dissolution election. Family First's Bob Day also clung onto his seat at that election. Modern normality has since been restored, with a 3-2-1 elected at the last two contests.

The Liberals may be in trouble this time around, however. Of all the states, South Australia looks like the one where their primary vote is most likely to fall through the floor, with the above prediction of no seats in Adelaide likely to have a flow on effect in upper house voting. Former Xenophon ally Rex Patrick is leading the Jacqui Lambie Network ticket here, but it seems more likely that One Nation's Jennifer Game, whose daughter represents the party in the South Australian parliament, would be poised to sneak the last spot. Legalise Cannabis would also be in the running thanks to their preferences from Labor and the Greens. A lot will depend on whether the Liberal vote stays steady, declines or flatlines.

Prediction

Liberal: 2 (-1)

Labor: 2 (-)

Greens: 1 (-)

Other: 1 (+1)

Tasmania

We come now to the state that has most often been a thorn in the side of the major parties. While there have been minor parties in Senate regularly since the 1950s, Tasmania has had a habit of lobbing human grenades into the chamber who have held the balance of power. Brian Harridine, Bob Brown (prior to the Greens growing into a stable third force), and most recently, Jacqui Lambie, who was originally elected as part of Clive Palmer's first political party. Lambie has been a renegade throughout her (almost) 12 years in the Parliament, and has stated that if re-elected, it would be her last term.

Tasmania's election of non-major parties has usually alternated between the majors as to which one has been most affected. In Lambie's case, she has 'taken' the third Liberal seat in the chamber (which the Liberals have barely ever filled over the last 40 years anyway), and it seems most likely she will do so again. However, as mentioned above, she has chosen not to run lower house candidates this time around, which may prove an error - that tactic helped her and Tammy Tyrell at successive elections, as voters are more likely to vote for a party that is present on both ballots if they can. One Nation has decided to push for that same seat by selecting Pauline Hanson's daughter as their lead candidate. What's more, the Lambie Network may have taken a hit from their quick collapse after the Tasmanian state election last year. The Greens or Labor will probably be caught a little in no-man's land in terms of their remaining quotas, but would favour Lambie. I suspect her personal support will probably enough to get her over the line one more time, and Hanson Jnr may have her eye on 2028.

Prediction

Liberal: 2 (-)

Labor: 2 (-)

Greens: 1 (-)

Other: 1 (-)

Australian Capital and Northern Territories

For many years, the Senate election in the territories has been nothing to write home about. Each of the major parties has held a seat in each territory since they began having Senate representation - up until 2022. While the Northern Territory has remained unchanged, things are different in Canberra. With the city dominated by professionals and public servants - groups increasingly disassociating themselves from the Coalition - there was sufficient room for a liberal-minded independent to make a run for the Senate, and former rugby player David Pocock was successful on his first attempt in 2022.

It seems unlikely that Pocock will be dislodged at this election, and the Liberals will have their work cut out to change that in the future. They may even need to target Labor voters rather than Pocock voters in order to have any chance of re-establishing themselves there.

Prediction

Country Liberal/Liberal: 1 (-)

Labor: 2 (-)

Greens: 0 (-)

Other: 1 (-)

Total

Coalition: 29 (-1)

Labor: 25 (-)

Greens: 11 (-)

One Nation: 4 (+2)

Other: 7 (-1)

Ill winds

While this isn't a "change" election in terms of changing government, I am assuming that the primary vote for both major parties is going to drop again, leaning more to the bearish side of pollsters like Demos which predict an ALP primary vote potentially under 30%, and a Coalition vote below 35%. Preferences will help the ALP win 2PP, by a couple of percentage points, but won't flow as strongly as at the last election. If Labor is to form a majority government, they will have to see off the Greens in Melbourne and hold on to a couple of nearby seats from the Liberals, and grab one or two of the Brisbane Greens seats. It's certainly a possibility. In fact, if they sweep the Greens off the board on above numbers (winning all the Brisbane seats and holding off in Melbourne), that would get them a majority.

The Coalition will need to protect against the independent challengers and maybe even win one or two of the lost Teal seats back, as well as doing better than currently anticipated in the outer suburbs of Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane. They can't form a majority government, but a minority government would also need them to win an extra seat or two in WA, the Northern Territory and Tasmania. The chances of this are not zero, but are slim.

In the Senate, One Nation won't necessarily do as well as predicted here, but if we're assuming the primary votes of the major parties are about to drop again, they would be the obvious beneficiary, imitating what the Greens have done to Labor on the other side of the fence.

It will then be up to the major parties to see whether they can respond to the new politics that has emerged, less they face an era of constant minority government. I can't say I'm too confident that they will, but stranger things have happened.