Labor.
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Incomprehensible
It's hard to overstate the size of victory for the ALP in the 2021 Western Australian election. So large was their margin of victory that I, in my prediction of that election, just assumed there were certain seats that were impossible for them to win that they did, in fact, end up winning.
After the 2017 state election, I proclaimed that election to be the WAELOAT - the Worst Australian Electoral Loss of All Time. The margin of victory was so staggering that I even stated near the end of that article that "It’s actually hard to see how Labor can better the result."
Famous last words, as it turned out. While the 2021 is not a contender for the Whale Oat (which is only awarded to sitting governments that lose an election), it would be a shoe-in for the BAEVOAT - the Best Australian Electoral Victory of All Time, an award I created just now. Labor didn't just better their 2017 result the next time around, but rather they absolutely smashed it. They had a greater swing towards them than they did in 2017, which was an election that essentially maximised the theoretical Labor vote.
Historically, there are certain sections of the population that are 'rusted-on' voters. They will only ever vote for a certain party. Major parties aim to win over the voters that are not rusted-on to the opponents, knowing that (in compulsory voting systems) their own rusted-ons are guaranteed to vote for them anyway.
In 2017, Labor won over pretty much every voter that wasn't rusted-on. That is why it appeared unlikely that they could do much better. Yes, there might have been a smidgen more vote available to them next time around, but their margin of victory was so amazingly large that it was difficult to see where exactly they would be getting significant gains in 2021.
But there was one factor that I - and many other election watchers - didn't consider the full implications of. In the above-linked article, I also made the following point: "There appears to be something going wrong within the Australian political system, and voters, being forced by law to vote, are responding by veering in one direction and then the other more heavily than ever before."
In other words, the number of rusted-on Australian voters is diminishing, and in the 2021 election this was made astonishingly plain. Forgoing traditional party politics altogether, the campaign period quickly turned the election into a referendum on Mark McGowan's performance as Premier in 2020. The Liberals were visibly frightened of opposing him in any serious way on anything to do with his decision during the Covid Crisis, and were punished severely for their inability to articulate any kind of real alternative vision.
The two-party preferred swing towards Labor was bigger than the 2017 swing, which was already in double digits. Labor's first preferences account for nearly 60% of the Legislative Assembly vote, and over 60% in the Legislative Council, something which hasn't happened since 1908. In his own seat of Rockingham, McGowan received just under 83% of first preferences, which I suspect has not happened ever in Australia outside of seats where only one candidate has run.
In three Perth electorates, the Liberals could not even muster 10% of first preferences, and were at one point in the count in serious danger of finishing third in the seat of Armadale, behind Australian Christians. The Nationals only suffered a one-and-a-half point swing against them by comparison.
In terms of seats, Labor controlled 53 of 59 seats in the Assembly, and 22 of 36 seats in the Council, giving them complete control of all legislation passing through the Parliament. Of the remaining six Assembly seats, four were won by the Nationals and two by the Liberals, meaning the Nationals became the Official Opposition.
The result of this has been four years of Labor having more-or-less free reign to govern however they want, and to decide which issues matter, what should be talked about and what should be kept quiet. There has been little opportunity, especially in a limited media environment, for the Opposition to push back, although it should also be said that when given opportunities, they haven't necessarily been able to make the most of them.
As a result, it seems almost impossible for the Liberals to mount such a strong comeback that they have any serious chance of forming government. They do not have the funds or the bodies to run a serious campaign in enough seats, especially with a federal election around the corner (although they have been able to piggyback state candidates into federal campaign events, which is a clever way of getting around the problem).
Of course, it also seemed impossible that Labor would win by such a large margin in 2021. Even the scale of their win in 2017 seemed unlikely in the lead-up. But the degree of difficulty for the Liberals pulling a win this time around is so much higher than it is barely worth considering. For now, let's look at what seats might actually be in play in the lower house.
Legislative Assembly
Thanks to redistribution, the seats currently held by the opposition parties will drop by one, with the 'merged' seat of Mid-West listed below as a Liberal vs National contest. All margins listed below are against the Liberals unless listed otherwise. Any seat not listed cannot reasonably be considered a contest, and even with these inflated margins, not all of the below are likely to be actual contests either.
Overall, we are likely to see a swing back to the Liberals that is on par with the 2017 election - which, it must be said, was still a blowout victory for the ALP. I suspect Labor is likely to do worse in the regions, as many of its most unpopular decisions - as well as any flow-on effects from the federal government's live export ban - have grabbed the attention of those living in rural areas more than those living in the city. Furthermore, swings are likely to be larger in newer suburbs than in more established areas, as has been the case in previous elections. Given the size of some of these margins, that could be very good news for Labor, as they may hold onto a lot of seats without needing to try too hard. But the inflated margins could also backfire on them, giving them a sense of comfort that does not match with reality, and setting up many marginal contests for the next election.
Churchlands (ALP 1.6%) - LIB GAIN
Since its creation in 1996, the Liberals have only won this seat twice - but that's a bit of a misnomer, because it was represented by independent Liz Constable up until 2013 at her retirement. Constable quit the Liberal Party over a factional dispute in the lead-up to the 1996 election, and the Liberals didn't bother running a candidate against her in that election, nor in 2008. She also served as a minister in the Barnett government after the latter election, up until her retirement. All this is to say that Churchlands is an exceptionally safe Liberal seat that was caught up in the overwhelming flood of the last election, and Basil Zempilas will be the new member for this seat.
Warren-Blackwood (ALP 2.2% vs NAT) - NAT GAIN
The defeat of veteran Nationals member Terry Redman was possibly the biggest surprise of the 2021 election, on a night that was full of them. While first preferences put him ever so slightly in the lead, leakage of preferences down the ballot from other parties put Jane Kelsbie ahead by less than 700 votes. Redistribution has seen the district gain Margaret River, at the expense of its eastern-most quarter, which was given to Albany. It is difficult to see how Labor could hold onto this seat - their primary vote, even in such a history election, barely cleared 30%. They will not reach that again, and preferences will not flow as strongly towards them either. The bigger question is whether the Liberals can do well enough to make it a contest against the Nationals. Traditionally, this was not Nationals territory, as evidenced by the neighbouring seat of Vasse, which is the strongest Liberal district in the state. It's also difficult to say how much of the Nationals' vote in previous elections was due to Redman's popularity. My guess is that minor party preferences will largely flow to the Nationals rather than to the Liberals, and that should see them over the line.
Nedlands (ALP 3.1%) - LIB GAIN While the margin in this seat is slightly larger for Labor than Churchlands, the loss of Nedlands by the Liberals in 2021 was the most shameful of them all. Having been won by the party since its creation in 1950, and having been the seat of its first family (the Courts), Nedlands should never, ever have been up for grabs - although it may be a sign that there is a shift going on in affluent parts of Perth that reflects those happening in the eastern states. After all, this is the heartland of the federal district of Curtin, which is currently represented by a Teal Independent. Nevertheless, this will return to Liberals, and the ALP have essentially abandoned the contest by sending its current member onto their Legislative Council ticket, which may even allow an independent to finish second.
Carine (ALP 3.9%) - LIB GAIN Another seat that the Liberals should never have lost, Carine only has four candidates running, and should be comfortably back in their hands by the end of the night, even after taking some less friendly territory in its new boundary to the north.
Bateman (ALP 6.7%) - LIB GAIN
Roughly an equivalent seat to Carine on the other side of the river, Bateman is the last of the seats that should barely even raise an eyebrow on election night by returning to the Liberals.
Mid-West (NAT 8.6%) - NAT RETAIN
Population shifts and a continual refusal from governments to expand the size of the Legislative Assembly have meant that almost every election since 2008 has seen at least two regional seats get merged. This time it's the turn of Moore, held by Nationals leader Shane Love, and the appallingly named North West Central, held by National-turned-Liberals Merome Beard, who presumably felt that joining the Liberals was her only chance at staying in parliament after the redistribution. The new seat of Mid-West loops around Geraldton, with most of its population coming from the more southerly district of Moore. Things have changed a great deal since 2008, when the Nationals first broke through to overcome their opponents in this part of the state. In 2021, Labor gained their votes from people who voted One Nation in 2017, which in turn had come from people who voted Liberal in 2013. With the continued unpopularity of the Liberals and the Nationals having settled in as the local representatives for nearly two decades, it seems quite likely that they will retain this seat not only at this election, but for the foreseeable future.
Geraldton (ALP 9.3% vs NAT) - LIB GAIN
The Mid-West redistribution also affected Geraldton, which continues to expand into the surrounding countryside. Once a solidly Labor electorate, the extension of its borders well beyond the city itself has transformed this seat into a genuine contest, but it's a little hard to tell who the strongest contestants are. Prior to Labor's Lara Dalton winning in 2021, the seat was held by the Nationals' Ian Blayney, who came a comfortable second last time around. But Blayney never went to an election as a National, having been twice elected as a Liberal before defecting in 2019, so presumably a large part of his vote last time came from being the sitting member, as well as the Liberals doing poorly everywhere, rather than because voters were enamoured with his new party. The geographical expansion of the seat will no doubt help the Nationals, but the Liberals will presumably recover their vote share as well.
Further complicating the matter is independent Shane van Styn, who previously ran as a National and was Mayor of Geraldton until recently. Van Styn has a significant profile within Geraldton, but his only real path to winning would be to make the final two alongside Dalton, which will be tough as the Liberals and Nationals are preferencing each other ahead of him, as do the minor parties. On the other hand, he will benefit from being listed first on the ballot. His decision to recommend the Liberals ahead of the Nationals may prove important.
Scarborough (ALP 9.5%) - LIB GAIN
2021 was such a mess of an election that even a seat like Scarborough isn't necessarily a sure thing for the Liberals. In fairness, the area is not necessarily as classically 'Liberal' as its coastal neighbours. First term MPs running for re-election for the first time tend to get a swing towards them or a softer swing against them, which will benefit the ALP here. If we assume a 14% two-party preferred swing statewide, minus a few percentage points for the re-election swing, that would indicate a close Liberal win. Swing is, of course, never uniform, but the margin just seems a bit small for Labor to be favoured to hold on here, though it would not be a complete shock if they did.
South Perth (ALP 10.1%) - LIB GAIN Like Nedlands, South Perth had been a Liberal (or Liberal-aligned Independent) seat since its creation in 1950, right up until 2021. The Liberals will want to reverse the margin here to get it back to being a 10%+ seat for them, rather than their opponents. At the very least, they will win this seat back - if they don't, they're in for a very rough night, as this is the last of the seats that they should unquestionably return to the fold.
Riverton (ALP 10.5%) - ALP RETAIN A firmly middle-class electorate, Riverton is not easy to pin down politically. It has mostly been Liberal since its creation, but has generally trended with the statewide swing. Only at the last two elections did the Liberals significantly overperform the statewide result, which may be a reflection of the increased 'upper-middle class' affluence of the area. Much like Scarborough, I suspect there could be a sufficient statewide swing that Labor will just fall short of holding on here, but not with much confidence. If one of the two were to hold on, I think it would be in this seat, and if the Liberals do win here, it may not be by much at all. The local member, Jags Krishnan, is relatively popular and is running for re-election in his first term. Furthermore, the addition of territory to the east will benefit him, as it is a little more Labor leaning.
Albany (ALP 11.0%) - LIB GAIN For nearly 25 years, the Liberals have thought they may have a chance of winning Albany back, only to be blocked from doing so for one reason or another. Since the 1930s, parties that win this seat tend to hold onto this seat for a couple of decades. Up until his retirement in 2021, former Olympian Peter Watson managed to withstand some pretty serious swings against Labor, and handed the baton to first-term member Rebecca Stephens. This would notionally be good news for Stephens, but there are a couple of factors in this seat that may make the night a little more uncomfortable for her.
One is that the electorate has expanded significantly, bringing in rural areas that were previously part of Warren-Blackwood, and not especially fertile ground for Labor. The second is that the federal government's live sheep export ban will probably have its most serious blowback for WA Labor in this seat, as most other sheep territory is already held by the Nationals in the state parliament, and it may spell trouble for her, especially when put alongside other unhappiness with the government in regional WA. While it isn't entirely clear which of the Liberals or Nationals would be more likely to finish ahead of the other - the Nationals candidate even ran as a Liberal in 2021, but the Liberals have traditionally done well in this region - whichever one finishes ahead will rely on the preferences of the other to leap into first, in which case Stephens will need to hope that her own profile as a new MP is strong enough to withstand the swing back.
Kalgoorlie (ALP 11.2%) - IND GAIN The district of Kalgoorlie has existed since 1901, and for almost all of its first century, the seat was held by the ALP. That changed with the election of former Liberal leader Matt Birney to the seat in 2001, and since his re-election in 2005, the seat has been held by a different person wearing different colours at every election. Labor-turned-independent John Bowler, who was also Mayor of Kalgoorlie until recently, was the next to win in 2008. After him it was Wendy Duncan of the Nationals, then another Liberal in Kyran O'Donnell, and finally in 2021 Ali Kent won it back for Labor after 20 years.
She and O'Donnell will be facing off again this time, but the latter will not be representing either the Liberals or the Nationals, having quit the Liberals after being preselected in an unwinnable position for the Legislative Council. With shades of Bowler before him, O'Donnell is a real chance in a seat that all of the major parties have their eye on as well. A volatile and transient electorate, it is nearly impossible to judge who might win, especially if it is anything like the 2017 election, when each of the major parties had a first preference vote between 28% and 24%, and One Nation got 12% as well. The Liberal candidate, Rowena Olsen, ran for the Nationals in 2021. While Kent will almost certainly make it to the final two, she may have to get a very high percentage of first preferences to be in with a chance of holding on, as every other candidate likely to do well will have their voters mostly preferencing anyone but her. If I had to pick one horse in this race, I would say O'Donnell is a real chance of replicating Bowler's achievement.
Dawesville (ALP 13.1%) - LIB GAIN
Dawesville, a district that covers the wealthier side of Mandurah, is the kind of electorate that should, theoretically, be a relatively safe seat for the Liberals. But the last couple of elections have been a triple whammy for them, first through the retirement of Kim Hames prior to the 2017 election, then in the election itself which turned the seat marginal owing to the large statewide swing without a popular local member to defend it, and then finally, new member Zak Kirkup became leader too young in a climate that was turbocharged for the success of the WA Labor government come 2021. The result was that Kirkup lost his own seat in a thrashing, having had to spend his time split between the seat and shoring up other safe Liberal seats, and not performing particularly well as leader either. As such, the margin seen here seems quite inflated for Labor, and I think the Liberals should actually be able to win it back.
Darling Range (ALP 13.5%) - ALP RETAIN
An increasingly tricky seat to figure out, the sprawling Perth suburbs are starting to leak into this district, which includes the outer edges of the south-east. The addition of parts of Baldivis seem likely to keep the ALP vote afloat, even though a large swing in Perth's outer suburbs would be reflected here too. Byford seems like the most important measuring stick here, and if the government's Metronet extension to there has any meaningful political impact, it will likely be safe Labor territory for some time, negating Liberal gains elsewhere. All in all, I think this is somewhere that Labor can hold on to, and if they do, that may be a long-term indicator of the seat's future.
Kalamunda (ALP 14.5%) - LIB GAIN Seated to the north of Darling Range, Kalamunda covers the mid-section of the Perth Hills and has traditionally been Liberal territory. It got caught up in the original Labor landslide in 2017, and was one of the few seats that the Liberals had their eye on winning back in 2021, and the result was not as bad as it could have been for them. (Interestingly, their candidate in 2021 is their 2025 candidate for Carine). What's more, the incumbent Labor member, Matthew Hughes, is retiring. Despite first appearances from the margin, the Liberals should feel as though this is a seat they can win back.
Fremantle (ALP 15.7% vs GRN) - ALP RETAIN
Fremantle was the first and only lower house seat in Western Australia to be won by the Greens, all the way back in 2009. Former Labor leader and Attorney-General Jim McGinty retired a year after Labor was returned to opposition, triggering a by-election. Adele Carles ran for the Greens as she had the previous year, and the Liberals didn't bother running a candidate. Carles improved on her already impressive 27% of first preferences from 2008 with 44% in 2009, and defeated the former Mayor of Fremantle, Peter Tagliaferri, to enter Parliament. The honeymoon was short-lived, as she quit the party following her affair with Liberal Treasurer Troy Buswell, and the Greens have not recovered their vote to get over 20% in the district since then.
Things are unlikely to change this time around, as independent Kate Hulett seems likely to be the main competitor to Labor's Simone McGurk. While Hulett is likely to grab votes from voters who went with Labor and the Greens last time around (anyone who still voted Liberal in this seat at the last election likely being very firmly rusted-on), the Liberals are preferencing McGurk, and it seems like quite a tall order for Hulett to seriously threaten to win.
Bicton (ALP 16.2%) - ALP RETAIN
Historically a safe Liberal seat, but one where looks are perhaps deceiving. For 12 years, this seat was held by independent Janet Woollard, running under the 'Liberals for Forests' moniker, a quasi-predecessor to the Teal Independents. Along the river, this is a classically Liberal area. Heading inland, it becomes stronger for Labor, and to the west the Greens are becoming more prominent, a phenomenon not found in neighbouring Bateman. The fact that this seat was won in 2017 rather than 2021 is perhaps a signal of its shifting demographics. It's a seat the Liberals will really want to win, but I'm not sure the preferences will flow their way strongly enough without a significant primary vote.
Kingsley (ALP 16.9%) - LIB GAIN
A Liberal-leaning middle-class swing electorate, two successive Labor landslides have made Kingsley seem out of reach for the Liberals, at least on paper. But with the first re-election buffer being 'used up' last time, unlike in Riverton, and without a significant Greens presence to help reinforce the Labor vote, unlike Bicton, this is a seat that the Liberals should very much have their eye on winning. Their candidate, Scott Edwardes, also ran last time so has had four years to build a profile, and there seem to be issues that are turning locals against the government. While the Liberals may have bigger swings towards them elsewhere, this may be the seat with the largest swing that also results in them winning it back.
Murray-Wellington (ALP 17.3%) - ALP RETAIN
Since prior to federation, all the way up to 2017, Murray-Wellington was not friendly territory for Labor, with the sole exception of the 1989 election. Liberal Murray Cowper lost the seat to Labor's Robyn Clarke in 2017 due to leaky preferences from the Nationals, One Nation and Shooters, Fishers and Farmers, all of which had their vote share collapse in 2021, with those votes ending up in Labor's hands directly. All four will likely redress that collapse this time around, and preferences are unlikely to be so favourable for Clarke as in 2017, which means she will need to ensure her first preference vote doesn't drop below the low 40s in order to retain the seat. I suspect she will be able to hold on, as it doesn't seem like a priority for the Liberals at this election with their limited funding, but it will be well and truly up for grabs come 2029.
Pilbara (ALP 17.6% vs NAT) - NAT GAIN
With the lowest voter turnout in the state, the margins in Pilbara are an illusion, as a swing of 3,000 votes out of 20,000 is bigger than a swing of 3,000 votes out of 30,000. As such, the massive margin here is not actually that massive, and the MP here is up for his second re-election on the back of two landslides. Kevin Michel doubled his first preferences in 2021, up from 30% to 60%, an achievement that is likely to be reversed on the back of some unpopular decisions by the state government that affect this region.
While those votes will likely be spread out among the Nationals, Liberals, One Nation and Shooters, Fishers and Farmers, it seems the National will be best placed to challenge Michel for the seat. The reputation of the Nationals outside of the Wheatbelt massively improved following its Royalties for Regions campaign, and the Liberals don't really seem to have any clear method of challenging as the main competitor to Labor by comparison. The biggest problem the Nationals had when former leader Brendon Grylls lost the seat in 2017 was the leakage away to Labor from the other parties, which is unlikely to be as much of a problem this time. A lot will come down to Michel's personal popularity, but in a seat this volatile I think the Nationals may be able to spring a surprise.
Jandakot (ALP 18.2%) - ALP RETAIN
Previously the holder of 'ugliest district boundary', Jandakot has got into shape for this election, losing its south-eastern portion to the new district of Oakford, and gaining the half of Leeming it didn't have before, along with newer suburbs to the south of the airport. The sitting member is running in Oakford, which means this is a contest between two fresh faces. The more established north, which is stronger for the Liberals naturally, will swing back towards them. The south, which is part of the politically volatile newer estates, may swing massively if that's what we see around the state. Together, that may make the margin here quite tight. But 18% is a large gap to overcome, even without incumbency advantages and boundary changes taking place, particularly when the Liberals haven't really got much in the way of statewide momentum.
Hillarys (ALP 18.7%) - ALP RETAIN
It might seem surprising from the margin, but Hillarys is another seat that Labor did not hold until 2021. This makes more sense when you realise that the Liberals only held on to the seat in 2017 by 0.1%, which was partly due to former MP Rob Johnson running as an independent. But it was also a reflection of the boundary changes affecting the district, which has steadily been shifting northwards, strengthening the Labor vote in the process. The Liberals will not be expecting to be in the running here, but will be hoping to make it competitive for the sake of the 2029 election. How much they can swing the seat back towards them will be an important indicator of how they many do in other suburbs in the middle ring around Perth.
Bassendean (ALP 31.5%) - ALP RETAIN
While I don't think there's any danger of Labor losing this seat, independent Reneé McLennan, formerly mayor of the Town of Bassendean, may well end up coming second thanks to receiving preferences from every other candidate. That possibility reminded me of the district of Kwinana in the 2008 state election. The Mayor of Cockburn, Carol Adams, ran in that election as an independent after losing the Labor preselection battle for the seat. A smear campaign was run against Adams, a member of the Police Union, during the election by the state secretary of the Liquor, Hospitality and Miscellaneous Workers' Union, Dave Kelly. Kelly is now the member for Bassendean, and the man who won the preselection fight against Adams and narrowly beat her in the election proper was none other than the current Premier of Western Australia, Roger Cook. Politics is a small world.
Predicted final result
Labor: 40 (-13)
Liberal: 13 (+10)
National: 5 (+2)
Independent: 1 (+1)
Legislative Council
Only a matter of months after gaining control of both houses in 2021, Mark McGowan reneged on both a promise he made during that year's election, in which he said the electoral reform was not on his government's agenda, and an agreement made back when he had last been in government between Alan Carpenter's Labor and the Max Trenorden-led Nationals, which redesigned the Legislative Assembly to be much more closely based on population figures, and in return made it so that the Legislative Council would mirror WA's population much less closely, with each of the six government-defined regions of the state receiving six MLCs each. Three of those regions cover Perth, which currently has a population of around 2 million, while the other three cover the rest of the state, with a population under half a million.
Why would Labor agree to such a lopsided chamber? Well, because they figured they wouldn't be the big losers of the move. After all, one of the rural regions, Mining and Pastoral, had been a Labor stronghold for a century. They calculated that they would never seriously struggle to form a majority in the upper house when in government (at worst, they would need the help of the Greens), because they would always get enough seats from Perth and Mining and Pastoral to make up for a deficit in Agricultural and South West.
Unfortunately for Labor, they didn't account for Brendon Grylls become the leader of the Nationals, swiftly transforming the party to represent every part of Western Australia not in touching distance of Perth, nor did they realise that Mining and Pastoral would become so politically volatile, with many perceiving Labor as abandoning them in favour of inner-city elitism.
As a result, the three elections that took place under the new system were exercises in frustration for Labor, unable to form a majority with the Greens in the upper house even in 2017. Their overwhelming victory therefore presented a potentially once-in-a-lifetime chance to reform the upper house in their favour as they had done in the lower house, even if it meant walking back a campaign promise only months after being given the biggest mandate in Australian political history.
And so, they did, to little fanfare or realisation of what had just happened. It was the first of many pieces of legislation rushed through the WA Parliament over the last four years, much of which proved the Liberals' lamely-presented "don't give Labor total control of both houses" argument right.
The result of the reform is that the Legislative Council is now one enormous electorate, with one more member than it used to have. 37 seats are up for grabs under a purely proportional electoral system, with the lowest required quota for a seat of any system in the country at a mere 2.63% of votes.
One unquestionably good change brought with the reform of the Council is the shift away from the group ticket voting system, the same one that the Australian Senate used to have, enabling the 'Preference Whisper' Glenn Druery to work his magic among tiny parties to get some elected. Just as the Australian Motoring Enthusiasts Party got elected in 2013 from 0.51% of votes in Victoria, so too did the Daylight Saving Party get into the Council in 2021 from 0.2% of votes in the Mining and Pastoral Region.
That has now been changed to optional preference voting above the line. Another good change is the tightening of party registration requirements, which asks that parties present 250 unique signatories for each candidate they have running. As groups need at least five candidates to be given their own list on the Council ballot paper, that is a fairly steep ask and one that has cleared off a number of micro-parties from the ballot.
There are only thirteen groups running, most of which can probably achieve at least 1% of the vote, and there are also five ungrouped candidates. Many of the seats in the chamber are easily calculated, coming from parties with well over 2.63% of votes. The tougher calculations will come right at the end, and will amount of guesswork by seat 37.
If we are to compare to 2017 (given that 2021 was a complete outlier), I would expect that Labor will perform approximately just as well in the Council, at around or just under 40%. The Liberals will recover a little, perhaps around 30%. The Greens will also recover, at around 10%, as will the Nationals at around 5%. One Nation will probably be next with a heavily caveated 4% - I say that because their record is extremely volatile in terms of votes received, and so they could end up with more than the Nationals or less than other minor parties. Australian Christians have consistently received 2% of the vote at previous elections, and Legalise Cannabis finished with a similar result last time, and both seem like they will have a fairly stable number of voters, though they may each be able to push up towards a full quota on their own.
The other party with a decent vote share in the past is the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers, though they are unhelpfully running as SFFPWA on the ballot. They will probably still manage at least 1.5-2% of the vote.
This leaves the remaining groups - Sustainable Australia, Animal Justice, the Libertarians, 'Stop Pedophiles[sic]! Protect kiddies!', and the Independent group as well as the ungrouped candidates - to share around 3-4% of the vote between them.
On these figures, Labor would receive pretty much exactly 15 seats, with no quota left over. The Greens would receive 3 seats, and would need a bit of preference help to get a fourth. If they could get a fourth, that would give Labor and the Greens a majority in the chamber. Alternatively, Labor might only reach 14 quotas, and their remainder helps the Greens win a fourth, or even a fifth. This may be more likely if people split their votes between the lower and upper house.
The Liberals would have enough for 11 seats, with a bit under half a quota remaining. The Nationals would be just short of a second seat, but could probably get there with preferences. One Nation would have around one-and-a-half quotas, which could be useful or not depending on whether they receive or give away preferences to anyone.
Australian Christians and Legalise Cannabis could probably get over the line for one quota after preferences if they can't do it themselves, and SFFPWA will be dependent on whether their name hurts them too much, but would be next in line.
The biggest remaining unknown is the Independent Group, which consists of three sitting MLCs that left their party. They are running as one ticket, though former Legalise Cannabis member Sophia Moermond has the top space. Ben Dawkins, now known as Aussie Trump by deed poll, may attract some votes either personally or for the group based on his name, though the latter would not help him get elected. Unfortunately for the group, getting re-elected to the Legislative Council as an independent is an extremely tall order, and one I suspect is beyond them.
Based on the above, there are probably three seats that would be up in the air, to be shared between some combination of Labor, the Greens, the Liberals, One Nation, SFFPWA, and maybe someone else that does surprisingly well.
Predicted final result
Labor: 14
Liberal: 12
Greens: 4
National: 2
One Nation: 2
Australian Christians: 1
Legalise Cannabis: 1
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers: 1
Final result
The predicted Parliament of Western Australia will still contain a large Labor majority government, which may again be devoid of representatives outside the major parties in the lower house. In the upper house, Labor will not have a majority, and so will either have to work with the Greens and Legalise Cannabis - the two parties they have preferenced on their Legislative Council how-to-vote cards - or with the remaining parties should the Greens in particular start playing hardball.
The biggest question on the night will be how large the swing against Labor is, as that will set the stage for how the 2029 election might pan out. The Liberal Party still has a great deal of rebuilding to do, and the Labor Party will be looking to shore up their margins well enough that they can aim for a fourth term next time around.
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